Trump Now Holds 64.3% Chance of Winning November Election Says Polymarket
Ahead of the US Presidential polls scheduled for November 5, Polymarket, a betting site, has revealed that Donald Trump’s chances of winning a second term in the White House have increased to 64.3%.
By: Abdulwasiu Akintunde
Ahead of the US Presidential polls scheduled for November 5, Polymarket, a betting site, has revealed that Donald Trump’s chances of winning a second term in the White House have increased to 64.3%.
OPEN TELEVISION NAIJA (OTN) News gathered that as at 4:20 am on Tuesday, Polymarket gives Trump a 64.3% chance of winning in November, significantly ahead of his Democratic competitor, Kamala Harris, who stands at 35.7% shortly before their debate in Georgia.
During the June 28 debate, Biden appeared to struggle, occasionally losing his train of thought, which intensified concerns regarding the cognitive abilities of the 81-year-old president.
This scrutiny prompted Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race on July 21, endorsing Harris, who subsequently became the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party.
Interestingly, Trump's odds have improved significantly throughout October. At the beginning of the month, Harris was ahead with 50% to Trump’s 49%.
Polymarket, which describes itself as “the world's largest prediction market,” provides real-time betting on various issues.
In addition to national predictions favouring Trump, Polymarket also lists him as the frontrunner in seven key swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
OTN News recalls that in the 2020 election, Biden won all these States except North Carolina. Current odds show Trump with 60% in Nevada, 72% in Arizona, 70% in Georgia, 68% in North Carolina, 61% in Pennsylvania, 59% in Michigan, and 57% in Wisconsin as of 5:45 am on Tuesday.
While the latest analysis from election website FiveThirtyEight shows Harris with a 1.8-point lead nationally, polling at 48.2% to Trump’s 46.4%, the dynamics could shift due to the Electoral College system, which allowed Trump to win the presidency in 2016 despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
FiveThirtyEight’s latest model gives Trump a 51% chance of victory against Harris’s 49%, with a negligible chance of no Electoral College winner.
Early voting has already begun, with preliminary data indicating Harris has a solid lead among those who have voted.
However, this may not reflect a broader trend, as Democratic voters typically engage in early voting more than Republicans.
In conclusion, Trump has previously raised concerns about mail-in ballots, claiming they lead to fraud, although these assertions have been widely rejected by election authorities.
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